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类型 应用研究 预答辩日期 2017-09-29
开始(开题)日期 2015-11-23 论文结束日期 2017-06-12
地点 东南大学四牌楼校区东南院305 论文选题来源 国家自然科学基金项目     论文字数 11.3 (万字)
题目 交通基础设施、产业集聚与区域经济发展:关联性与效率分析
主题词 交通基础设施,产业集聚,区域经济发展,关联性,效率
摘要 在世界经济深度调整、复苏动力不足、地缘政治影响加重和不确定性因素增多的时代大背景下,推动增长、增加就业、调整结构成为国际社会经济发展的共识。中国经济正经历自改革开放以来最持久深入的增长放缓,处于阶段转换的新常态之中。改革开放前期“跑马圈地”粗放式经济增长模式已被证明是不协调、不平衡、低效率和不可持续的,其使得我国经济的结构性风险不断加大。当前,中国区域经济存在明显的不平衡发展趋势,尤其表现在东部沿海地区与中西部内陆地区之间在经济增速、收入水平等方面存在巨大差距,两者间的“中心-外围”结构明显。而非农产业部门持续向东部地区集聚则被认为此“中心-外围”结构产生的主要原因之一。因此,从公平和效率两个视角来看,中国不同区域间的协调发展还有待进一步优化。 交通基础设施现如今已成为经济发展的“加速器”。作为“一带一路”战略的先行领域和新型城镇化建设的重要保障,交通基础设施对经济发展的作用受到了学界和政府越来越多的重视。但是,传统经济学理论专注于交通基础设施对经济系统影响的研究,往往忽视了空间特征,从而导致现实中不断强化的产业集聚趋势与传统理论分析中的一般均衡结论冲突不断。新经济地理学理论将空间要素引入经济学均衡分析,开拓了经济学研究的新纪元。但是,新经济地理学理论关于交通基础设施经济集聚效应的理论和实证研究尚不充分,而且对交通基础设施、产业集聚以及区域经济发展三者之间的关联性以及互动机理至今尚未有清晰的阐述。因此,我们有必要对交通基础设施的理论进行梳理,构建包含交通基础设施的经济系统,透彻分析交通基础设施、产业集聚与区域经济发展的关联性与互动机理,客观评价和分析交通基础设施发展可持续性水平及其对经济系统的影响,并指出其未来的发展方向,为推动我国产业布局优化、区域协调发展提供理论支撑和政策支持。 本文以产业经济学以及新经济地理学等学科理论为指导,采用规范与实证相结合、静态与动态相结合、比较与系统相结合的研究方法,对交通基础设施、产业集聚与区域经济发展三者的关联性以及交通基础设施发展的效率问题进行了理论和实证分析。我们的研究思路在于:首先,利用异质性企业垄断竞争模型分析资源在不同地区间的配置情况,构建起交通基础设施对资源配置的影响机理;其次,从资源配置的视角出发,在Martin(1995)的新经济地理模型的基础上,引入交通基础设施变量,研究交通设施、产业集聚与区域经济发展三者之间的关联性与互动机理;然后,构建交通基础设施可持续性的衡量体系,利用数据包络分析(DEA)方法评价中国各省交通基础设施发展的可持续性,并基于相关经济理论进一步探讨逆向因果关系,即研究产业集聚以及区域经济发展对交通基础设施可持续性的影响效果;最后依循实证结果提出一些政策建议。 本文的主要结论有: 第一,交通基础设施的发展可以有效提升资源配置效率。本文发现在中国当前的经济发展中,东部地区存在要素资源相对供给不足,而中西部地区存在要素资源相对过剩,从动态角度考察还发现资本要素在东中西三个地区的错配程度越来越严重,而劳动力要素在这三个地区的错配程度则逐渐缓解。地区的交通基础设施水平对资源错配存在显著影响,交通基础设施水平的提高,可以通过以下三条路径:一是优化产业区位,促进结构调整;二是降低运输成本,消除市场分割;三是扩大市场范围,提高分工精度,减轻或消除要素资源错配。分地区角度进行考察发现,交通基础设施对于资源配置效率的影响系数,东部最大,西部次之,中部最小,说明交通基础设施的优化资源配置效应还会受到地区经济发展水平等因素的影响。 第二,产业集聚在交通基础设施对区域经济增长的作用路径中起着部分中介作用,且这种中介效应取决于地区内的集聚与转移这两种向心力与离心力的相互作用情况。不同地区的区内与区间交通基础设施对于地区收入的影响方向并不一致:区内交通基础设施水平的提升,都会促进地区人均收入的增长。东部地区的区间交通基础设施水平的提升也会有利于本地居民收入水平的提高,但中西部地区的区间交通基础设施水平的提升对本地居民收入的影响则为负。此外,从空间溢出效应的存在性来看,区内交通基础设施并不明显,而区间的空间溢出效应则较为显著,其中发达地区的空间溢出效应为正,而欠发达地区的空间溢出效应为负。 第三,中国交通基础设施发展的可持续性水平有待进一步提高,且地区间交通运输可持续性存在显著差距。本文发现中国铁路运输可持续性呈现倒U型变化特征,位于以0.6797为中心的0.6135-0.7287的中高位增长区间内,但仍具有较大的提升空间。分地区考察发现,中国东部地区铁路运输的可持续性明显好于中西部地区。东、中、西部铁路运输的可持续性绩效均值分别为0.7784、0.6188和0.6270。东部与中西部的铁路运输可持续性在经过前期的收敛发展后,自2009年以来趋于分散。 第四,交通基础设施发展的可持续性受到地区制造业集聚程度、区域经济发展以及环境规制等因素的影响。本文发现地区制造业集聚程度与铁路运输可持续性呈现显著的负相关关系,说明我国当前集聚的拥挤效应显现,导致铁路基础设施投资和运营成本上升,对环境污染的程度也逐渐增大。地区经济发展水平与铁路运输可持续性显著正相关,说明地区经济发展水平的提高有利于提升铁路运输可持续性水平,两者间存在着正向循环作用。环境管制与铁路运输可持续性之间并无显著的相关关系,说明目前的环境规制强度在提升可持续性方面的效果仍然有待提高。人口密度与铁路运输可持续性显著正相关。 总体而言,与现有文献相比,本文对交通基础设施、产业集聚以及区域经济发展之间关系的研究具有如下几个方面的创新:(1)研究视角的创新。本文从资源配置的视角出发研究地区的经济发展情况,构建了交通基础设施对资源配置的影响机理,并实证检验了此影响机理的存在性,为后续研究奠定了理论基础;(2)以新经济地理学原理为基础,引入交通基础设施构建了新的空间经济学模型,通过对模型进行推导,从理论上深入研究了交通基础设施对产业集聚、区域经济增长的影响,提出并解释了产业集聚在交通基础设施影响区域经济增长的路径中的中介作用;(3)构建了交通基础设施发展可持续性评价指标体系,并利用网络DEA模型评估了中国各省铁路基础设施可持续性绩效水平,然后将其与省级层面面板数据结合,利用Tobit计量回归模型探讨了逆向因果关系,即分析了产业集聚与区域经济发展对交通基础设施可持续性的影响。
英文题目 Transportation Infrastructure, Industrial Agglomeration and Regional Economic Development: Relevance and Efficiency Analysis
英文主题词 transportation infrastructure, industrial agglomeration, regional economic development, relevance, efficiency
英文摘要 The world economy has entered a period of deep adjustment and the power of the economic recovery is still insufficient. At the same time, the geopolitical influence is aggravating and the uncertainty factors are also increasing. Under the above background, promoting economic growth, increasing employment and adjusting the industrial structure has become a consensus on international economic development. China’s economy is experiencing the most sustained growth slowdown since the reform and opening, and is in the new normal stage of phase transition. But the extensive economic growth pattern of "Happy Valley enclosure" was uncoordinated, unbalanced, inefficient and unsustainable in the early stage, which increased the structural risk of China’s economy. Currently, the imbalance of regional economic development is obvious in China, especially there is a huge gap between growth and income levels between the eastern coastal areas and the central and western parts of the mainland, which has formed the obvious "center- periphery" structure. The non-agricultural sectors’ agglomeration in the eastern coastal areas is considered to be a main reason of this structure. Therefore, from the two angles of efficiency and equity, regional coordinated development remains to be optimized. Transportation infrastructure has transformed from a bottleneck of economic development to an accelerator. As an antecedent measure of The Belt and Road strategy and the important guarantee of new urbanization construction, the role of transportation infrastructure in economic development has attracted more and more attention of academia and government. But traditional economic theory focuses on the impact of transportation infrastructure on the economic system, which ignores the spatial characteristics and leads to the continuing conflicts between the constantly strengthened trend of industrial agglomeration and the general equilibrium conclusion in traditional theoretical analysis. The new economic geography introduced spatial factors into economic equilibrium analysis, and opened up a new era of economics research. However, the theoretical and empirical research on the economic agglomeration effect of transportation infrastructure in new economic geography theory is not enough, and the connection and interaction mechanism among transportation infrastructure, industrial agglomeration and regional economic development has not yet been clearly expounded. Therefore, it is necessary for us to comb the transportation infrastructure theory, establish an economic system including transportation infrastructure, and thoroughly analyze the relevance and interaction mechanism among transportation infrastructure, industrial agglomeration and regional economic development. Then we should objectively evaluate and analyze the sustainable development level of transportation infrastructure and its impact on the economic system, and point out its future development direction, finally provide some theoretical and policy support for the optimization of industrial layout and regional coordinated development in china. Guided by the theories of industrial economics and new economic geography, this paper made a theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between the three basic factors of transportation infrastructure, industrial agglomeration and regional economic development, and the efficiency of transportation infrastructure development. In this paper, we adopted the research methods of the combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis, static analysis and dynamic analysis, comparison research and system research. The research route is as follows: firstly, we used the model of monopolistic competition of heterogeneous enterprises to analyze the situation of resource mismatches, and constructed the interaction mechanism of transportation infrastructure influencing the allocation of resources. Secondly, from the perspective of resource allocation, we introduced the transportation infrastructure variable into the new economic geography model of Martin (1995) to study the relationship and interaction mechanism among transportation infrastructure, industrial agglomeration and regional economic development; thirdly, we constructed a measurement system for the sustainability of transportation infrastructure and used DEA method to evaluate the sustainability of transportation infrastructure of different provinces in China, and further explored the reverse causality based on the relevant economic theory, which means studying the effects of industrial agglomeration and regional economic development on the sustainability of transportation infrastructure; finally, according to the empirical results, some policy suggestions are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First, the development of transportation infrastructure can effectively improve the efficiency of resource allocation. In this paper, we found that in the current economic development in China, the relative supply of factor resources is insufficient in the eastern region, while the central and western regions have relative surplus of factor resources. From the dynamic point of view, it was also found that the mismatch of capital elements in China was becoming more and more serious while the degree of mismatch of labor factors was gradually alleviated. The level of transportation infrastructure has a significant impact on resource allocation. The improvement of transportation infrastructure can mitigate or eliminate the mismatch of factor resources through the following three paths: one is to optimize the industrial location and promote structural adjustment, one is to reduce transportation costs and eliminate market segmentation, and the other is to expand market scope and improve the accuracy of division of labor. Investigating from a regional perspective, we also found that the influence coefficient of transportation infrastructure on resource allocation efficiency ranked the first in the east area, the second in the west areas and the third in the middle areas, which means that the effect of optimizing the resource allocation of transportation infrastructure will also be affected by the level of regional economic development. Second, industrial agglomeration plays a part of intermediary role in the influence route of transportation infrastructure on regional economic growth, and the mediating effect depends on the interaction between the centripetal force and the centrifugal force in the region. The impact of intra-regional and inter-regional transport infrastructure on regional income is not consistent in different regions. The upgrading of intra-regional transportation infrastructure can promote the growth of per capita income in the region. The upgrading of the inter-regional transportation infrastructure in the eastern region will also help improve the income level of the local residents. However, the upgrading of the inter-regional transportation infrastructure in the central and western regions will have a negative impact on the local residents’ income. Besides, the spatial spillover effect of intra-regional transportation infrastructure is not obvious, but that of inter-regional transportation infrastructure is obvious. Among them, the spatial spillover effect is positive in developed areas, while the spatial spillover effect of the less developed areas is negative. Third, the sustainability of transportation infrastructure development in China needs to be further improved, and there is a significant gap between regional transportation sustainability. In this paper, we found that the sustainability of railway transportation in China was characterized by "inverted U", which was located in the high growth range of 0.6135-0.7287 with 0.6797 as the center, but still had more room for improvement. Sub-regions investigating found that, the sustainability of rail transportation in eastern China is obviously better than that in the central and Western regions. The sustainable performance values of railway transportation in the east, middle and west regions were 0.7784, 0.6188 and 0.6270 respectively. The sustainability of railway transportation in the East and Midwest has been dispersed since 2009, after a period of convergence. Fourth, the sustainability of transportation infrastructure development is affected by regional manufacturing agglomeration and environmental regulation. We found that the agglomeration degree of regional manufacturing industry had a significant negative correlation with the sustainability of railway transportation. It implied that the crowding effect of agglomeration in our country was beginning to appear, leading to the rise of the cost of railway infrastructure investment and operation, and increasing environmental pollution. We also found that there is no significant correlation between environmental regulation and railway transportation sustainability. It was pointed out that the effect of the current environmental regulation intensity on promoting sustainability was still to be improved. But the level of regional economic development and population density are positively related to the sustainability of railway transportation. In general, compared with the existing literature, the research on the relationship between transportation infrastructure, industrial agglomeration and regional economic development in this paper has the following innovations: first, the innovation of the perspectives of the study. This paper studied the economic development of the region from the perspective of resource allocation. The impact mechanism of transportation infrastructure on resource allocation was constructed for the first time, and the existence of the mechanism was tested empirically, which laid a theoretical foundation for further research. Second, based on the principle of new economic geography, we introduced transportation infrastructure and constructed a new spatial economic model. Through the deduction of the model, the influence of transportation infrastructure on industry agglomeration and regional economic growth was studied theoretically. This paper first presented and explained the intermediary role of industrial agglomeration in the path of transportation infrastructure affecting regional economic growth. Third, this paper constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system of transportation infrastructure, and used the network DEA model to evaluate the performance level of railway infrastructure sustainability in China for the first time. We then integrated the value with the panel data at the provincial level and used the Tobit regression model to explore the reverse causality, which means analyzing the influence of industrial agglomeration and regional economic development on the sustainability of transportation infrastructure.
学术讨论
主办单位时间地点报告人报告主题
江苏师范大学 2014年10月 江苏徐州 周海波 产城融合视角下服务业与制造业集群协同发展模式研究——以盐城环保产业园为例
山东大学经济学院 2015年6月 山东济南 周海波 中国铁路运输可持续性绩效评价与影响因素研究——基于共享投入与非期望产出的两阶段SBM-DEA模型
南京审计大学 2015年6月 江苏南京 周海波 Evaluation of Chinese Railway Sustainability Using a Two-stage Network DEA Model with Undesirable Outputs and Shared Resources
浙江财经大学 2015年4月 浙江杭州 周海波 地区资源错配与交通基础设施:来自中国的经验证据
东南大学经济管理学院 2015年6月 江苏南京 郭进 户籍歧视与城镇化进程中的福利缺失:理论、实证与弥补路径
南京财经大学国际经贸学院 2017年1月 江苏南京 刘修岩 人口流动、迁移摩擦与中国城市体系:理论与结构式估计
东南大学经济管理学院 2015年6月 江苏南京 陈旭 Specialization or Diversification?—The Impact of Financial Credit Development on China’s Export
东南大学经济管理学院 2016年4月 江苏南京 刘姿含 发展中国家可再生能源政策制定影响因素研究:基于一带一路沿线国家数据
     
学术会议
会议名称时间地点本人报告本人报告题目
第十五届“产业集群与区域发展”学术会议(15th ICRD) 2016年11月 浙江杭州 交通基础设施、产业布局与地区收入:基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量分析
2016年环境经济与政府规制研讨会 2016年12月 江苏南京
The IAFOR North American Conference on the Social Sciences 2014(NACSS 2014) 2014年9月 美国普罗维登斯 A Research on the Transforming innovation of Chinese Enterprise: from internal and external perspectives
第六届中国政府管制论坛 2017年4月 浙江杭州 特色小镇问题的由来、动态及展望
     
代表作
论文名称
战略性新兴产业发展陷阱:表现、成因及预防
Sustainability Evaluation of Railways in China Using a Two-Stage Network DEA Model with Undesirable
地区资源错配与交通基础设施:来自中国的经验证据
交通基础设施、产业布局与地区收入——基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量分析
知识演化视角下产业集群升级模式对于创新绩效的影响分析
 
答辩委员会组成信息
姓名职称导师类别工作单位是否主席备注
盛昭瀚 正高 教授 博导 南京大学 主任委员
王家新 正高 教授 博导 南京审计大学 委员
吴应宇 正高 教授 博导 中国药科大学 委员
陈淑梅 正高 教授 博导 东南大学 委员
胡绪华 正高 教授 博导 江苏大学 委员
      
答辩秘书信息
姓名职称工作单位备注
谢呈阳 其他 讲师 东南大学 答辩秘书